10000 Hours, Hits and Experts

Over the break I had the chance to read Malcolm Gladwell’s new book Outliers. The book’s been talked about a lot since it’s recent release, and for good reason. It’s engaging, thought provoking and well written – everything we’ve come to expect from Malcolm. One of the main arguments of Outliers is that becoming an expert takes about 10,000 hours of hard work.

Seth Godin recently posted some thoughts on what’s becoming known as the “10,000 Hour Rule” – this part in particular stuck out:

“For me, though, some of the 10k analysis doesn’t hold up. The Doors (or Devo or the Bee Gees) for example, didn’t play together for 10,000 hours before they invented a new kind of rock*. If the Doors had encountered significantly more competition for their brand of music, it’s not clear that they could have gotten away with succeeding as quickly as they did. Hey, Miley Cyrus wasn’t even 10,000 hours awake before she became a hit.”

I’m glad he used the word “hit” and not “expert” because I think that the difference between an expert who produces a hit and a hit itself is a critical distinction that clears up a lot of the confusion around the 10,000 hours debate. Hat tip to Seth. He’s cleverly drawn that distinction. The reason that the 10K Rule doesn’t work for superstars like Miley or Devo is because it doesn’t apply. A hit can come out of no where because it instantly fills an uncontested niche that was begging to be filled (a new kind of rock (The Doors), for example). Another good example of this type of instant hit would be the invention of “Chunky Spaghetti Sauce” (If that sounds like a strange reference, check out the video below). Said another way – a product/song/idea can become a hit because it fills a need in an uncontested space, which, of course does not require 10000 hours of expertise.

The reason for the confusion is probably that Outliers misses when it explicitly combines the 10,000 hours rule with the opportunities arguments, and leaves out sub 10K examples. Bill Joy and Bill Gates, for example, put in their 10,000 hours in a time when the programming space wasn’t highly contested, so when their “born in 1955 opportunity” put them in prime position to be the leaders in their field it allowed them to put their expertise to good use at just the right moment. Theirs was an issue of potential energy (like squashing a spring and letting it go at the right time) AND getting through The Dip, as Seth argues (spending 10K on something that requires at least 5K). The point is that some “hits” don’t require the 10K, they just require the right timing and an audience that desperately wants something that it hasn’t gotten yet.

For those that are interested, Gladwell’s argument in this video illustrates exactly what I’m talking about – how filling a need in an uncontested niche can create a hit. In this case, it was chunky spaghetti sauce.