After the Democratic National Convention this week, and the official announcement of the Obama-Biden ticket, there’s been a lot of chatter about where Clinton supporters stand, regardless of the clear message of Clinton’s “No Way, No How, No McCain” speech at the DNC. The reason for the chatter? Analysts are trying to get a feel for what the true population of swing voters looks like. More than ever, parties are recognizing that their futures lie in winning at the center, rather than at the extremes, because the impact swing voters have on an election is so profound. The math behind the power of the swing vote is actually quite simple – In his book Microtrends: The Small Forces Behind Tomorrow’s Big Changes, Mark Penn (worldwide CEO of Burson-Marsteller and chief adviser to Senator Clinton’s presidential campaign) offers an excellent, concise explanation for exactly why swing voting, as he puts it, is king -
We hear it every day: America is divided into two camps – red and blue – and the key to elections is just energizing the base. Books have been written about it, careers have been made on it, and movements have been founded on it. But it is simply not true …
Just look at the math regarding generating turnout for the base versus courting the swing voters. Voting is based on history – the most likely voters are those who voted last time. Based on that, the case for winning with just the base is daunting. Suppose you have ten voters who voted last time, splitting their preferences 50/50. Now if one swing voter changes his or her mind, the vote becomes 60/40. If one new voter gets added to the pool, thanks to your efforts to turn out the base, the vote is still 55 to 45 against you (you have 6 out of 11). If a second voter who didn’t vote last time is chauffeured to the polls, you are not back to 50/50, as you have 6 out of 12. In other words, it takes two new voters to overcome one voter who has changed his mind, and three new voters to overcome his defection. In almost all cases, therefore, it is more strategic to get one voter on the edge to switch opinions than it is to bring two or three new voters to the polls. It’s theoretically possible for additional base turnout to be a factor, but in 95 perfect of the elections, it is the swing voter who is decisive.
I thought this was worth sharing.
(I’ve included some additional thoughts for discussion in the comments).
Below is a list of links to the very best reading out there on Hacking WordPress and building a better blog. I’ve also included a list of links to designers and others who are significantly advancing WordPress through innovative theme development and plugins. If you know of a post or resource that I have not included yet, please add it in the comments! I’ll constantly update this list as I find more of the good stuff.
I’m not ashamed to admit that I spend an absurd amount of time tinkering in Apple stores with absolutely no shopping agenda. I feel bad for the sales reps, actually. I have a hopelessly expressive face and I must have the look of a kid in a candy store, constantly giving off a “dying to buy” signal that makes me a magnet for unsolicited customer service. If I had a dime for every time I’ve brushed off a friendly apple rep who was trying to be helpful, I could probably afford one of those new Macbook Pros I’ve been drooling over (apple reps, please accept my apologies).
The other day I was in the Apple store suffering through palpable inner turmoil, talking myself out of a $2500 impulse buy. After inventing a few “creative financing” scenarios for myself, the rational part of me (ever the deal breaker because it’s the part that looks at my bank statements) contributed a very direct “do you need this?”. The answer to that, of course, is no, which brought me back to earth pretty quickly. But then I looked around the store and was all at once keenly aware of the fact that none of the people in the packed store did. None of it. Any of these people (myself included) could hop online and find a perfectly good, meat-and-potatoes PC for hundreds less. Same goes for iPhones – the human race has managed for thousands of years without the internet in their hands – no one really needs these things and there are decent substitutes for all of them out there for a fraction of the price. So I started thinking…what’s driving the apple craze? Any consumer shopper could tell you that it’s definitely not price, and my personal gut reaction from my (regular) observation of crowds in the stores, which seem to be a veritable smorgasbord of ages and cultures, tells me that it’s not a particular target market that’s driving demand. The Mac has definitely gone mainstream. But why the shift? I have a few of theories -
The Apple Has Become A Symbol of Identity
Seen a Mac vs. PC ad lately? Brilliant marketing. Not ONCE since the inception of Apple’s Get A Mac campaign in 2006 has an actual computer been the center of attention in an ad. Instead the ads focus on differentiating the “hip” mac user’s image from the “not-so-hip” non-mac users (technically it’s a PC vs Mac ad, but realistically it’s mac and not mac). And subtle the comparison is not. Each commercial is an image war between a cool guy decked out in gear from Urban Outfitters, Levis and vans, and a dumpy, insecure Milton-esque guy wearing a 1970s polyester suit. For a year and a half now, millions of viewers have seen a very likable Mac guy win awards and talk about how great “his” OS is while PC guy goes to therapy, sings the vista blues and takes flack from pissed off yoga instructors (My recent favorite is the ad where PC guy introduces a host of stress-releiving herbal teas like “crashytime camomile” and “pomegranite patience”). Each ad asks viewers to question who they want to be (viewed as). I think people are responding to these ads (among other cultural signals) in ways that clearly show that your choice of computer says just as much about who you are as the car you drive or the clothes that you wear.
(image courtesy of mactropolis.com)
Geek Is Chic
It helps that the Apple logo has become synonymous with “geek”, because it’s allowed Apple to successfully align itself with (and no doubt amplify) a greater social trend that’s on the rise. The geek image has shifted from lame to cool, and likeable geeky characters like Ugly Betty have become pop-culture icons. Who know’s, maybe society at large has watched young entrepreneurs like Mark Zuckerberg (Age 24, Founder of Facebook), David Karp (Age 21, Founder of Tumblr) and Daniel Ha (Age 22, Founder of Disqus) become tech celebrities and taken note? Geeks are becoming heros. I snagged this video of a session from Katie Couric’s Notebook on YouTube (Dec 07) that discusses the new trend towards Geek Chic.
Appealing to the Next Generation of Computer Users Through Esteem-Based Ads
So what can tomorrow’s marketers learn from Apple’s example? The message is loud and clear – brains are in and people are buying technology based on decisions they are making about their identities, not just functions and features…a quick side dish to illustrate:
Recognize this?
Transcendence: help others realize their potential
Self-actualization: creativity, morality, realize your own potential, self-fulfillment, peak experiences
Esteem: self-esteem, confidence, achievement, respect of others/gain approval, independence, status
Love/Belonging: love, family, friends, sexual intimacy
Security: protection, safety, stability
Physical: hunger, thirst, bodily comfort
It’s Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs, and you probably remember it as a pyramid because it was originally thought of as a ladder, but research suggests that people pursue all of these needs simultaneously. The point here is that not many marketers these days go far beyond the physical, security and belonging layers – Apple, on the other hand, focuses almost all of its ads on the Esteem and Self-actualization layers (including promoting creativity) with it’s pro-geek chic. It’s simultaneously riding and reinforcing a social movement. And I think it’s why they’re gaining so much ground in the personal computing market. Marketers should take note. Tech isn’t just a tool for getting what you do done, it’s a statement of who you are….which is probably why this Geek has an existential crisis every time he sits down to type a blog post on his PC.
Any thoughts on this? Do you base your tech-purchasing decisions on both fashion and function?
Professionalism isn’t just about physical appearance or demeanor. It’s a method of interacting with people. Exhibiting professionalism is about respecting people’s time, intelligence and their right to unbiased information via the manner in which you engage them. It requires communicating in a way that minimizes exaggeration and eliminates emotionally charged language or personal opinions about others when sharing information.
Becoming a professional is easy. Being professional all the time is not so easy.
Over on the AdaptiveBlue Blog Fraser’s posed this question that’s started a good exchange of thoughts:
As digital creeps into all forms of media, and companies adjust their structure and strategy, what’s the correct amount of “digital”, or “technology”, capacity that they should bring in-house?
I’ve thrown my two cents in. Come on over and join the conversation.
After the Democratic National Convention this week, and the official announcement of the Obama-Biden ticket, there’s been a lot of chatter about where Clinton supporters stand, regardless of the clear message of Clinton’s “No Way, No How, No McCain” speech at the DNC. The reason for the chatter? Analysts are trying to get a feel for what the true population of swing voters looks like. More than ever, parties are recognizing that their futures lie in winning at the center, rather than at the extremes, because the impact swing voters have on an election is so profound. The math behind the power of the swing vote is actually quite simple – In his book Microtrends: The Small Forces Behind Tomorrow’s Big Changes, Mark Penn (worldwide CEO of Burson-Marsteller and chief adviser to Senator Clinton’s presidential campaign) offers an excellent, concise explanation for exactly why swing voting, as he puts it, is king -
